Will the Donbass line be the new Berlin Wall?

Will the Donbass line be the new Berlin Wall?

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Crimea 2014

By German Gorraiz Lopez

© The Radical Outlook

The former Soviet republic of Ukraine would have a population close to 50 million inhabitants and would be marked by the stigma of the chronic confrontation between the phobic and phobia Russian tendencies. The deepening of latent tensions between the pro-Russian ruling party and the pro-western opposition were unleashed after the Ukrainian government’s decision to “interrupt preparations” for the signing of an association and free trade agreement with the EU, an agreement that was scheduled to be signed. at the Vilna Summit and which envisaged the integration of Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine according to the agreements of the 2009 Prague summit.

Ukraine as a collateral victim of the Cold War 2.0

At the last summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (post-Soviet countries) held in Minsk, Putin warned Ukraine that “after the signing of the Association treaty, Ukraine will lose its customs barriers and will be invaded by Western products. That tariff disarmament would affect Russia, if Ukraine were also a member of the Customs Union, and it would be very dangerous and unacceptable, “also urging Kiev to join the Eurasian Economic Union (UEE) made up of Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. But after the “virtual coup” against Yanukovych, the interim government of Alexadr Turchinov proclaimed its desire to increase its relations with the EU while maintaining its relations with Russia in a difficult exercise of political balancing act.

However, this company seemed very complicated due to the brutal economic collapse that the former Soviet Republic would have suffered, to which would be added the lack of full guarantees for a possible integration of Ukraine as a full member of the EU, (guarantees that However, they had at the time countries such as Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria or Romania) and the alleged rejection of European public opinion to full integration.After the unsuccessful attempt of Ukraine’s accession to the Free Trade Agreement with the EU, it would underlie the serious Ukrainian economic situation, reflected in the urgent need to update the Ukrainian productive fabric to European standards and technical requirements (estimated at about 250,000 million dollars in a process that would last until 2023 with an investment of 40 million dollars a year dedicated exclusively to the updating of the standards). This company seemed very complicated due to the brutal economic collapse that the former Soviet Republic would have suffered and that touched the threshold of default or suspension of payments, so the EU would have provided aid worth € 17,000 million since 2014 with the objective unequivocal of ensuring that Ukraine remains in the western orbit.

The Crimean crisis would have meant the return of the Brezhnev Doctrine (also called the doctrine of limited sovereignty), which established that “Russia has the right to intervene even militarily in the internal affairs of the countries in its area of influence”, establishing a network of Orbital rings that will gravitate over the Russian aegis, ruled by autocrats who only blindly obey the dictates of their master Putin and among which the Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov and the Belarusian leader, Lukashenko, would stand out.

Will the Donbass line be the new Berlin Wall?

The Sea of Azov is crucial for grain and steel exports produced in eastern Ukraine as it is linked to the Black Sea by the Kerch Strait and from there ships can sail to anywhere in the world. Tensions were reignited in 2016 with the construction by Moscow of a controversial 19-kilometer bridge over the Kerch Strait to connect Crimea with Russia. Grain and steel are the main goods transported by freighters in the ports of the Azov Sea but given the restrictions imposed by Russia on maritime traffic of Ukrainian ships, in the first seven months of the year the revenues from the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk would have suffered a sharp decline and Putin’s ultimate goal would be according to Ukrainian sources “to achieve the economic asphyxia of the Ukrainian ports bathed by the Sea of Azov and end up expelling Ukraine from its own territories”, thereby giving absolute control of the Sea of Azov would pass into Russian hands.

The Geographical pivots

With regard to Ukraine, Putin tries to ensure that Ukraine does not enter NATO and that the Ukrainian dispute is outlined with the division of Ukraine into two almost symmetrical halves and separated by the Donbass line of contact, leaving the South and East of the country (including Crimea and the Sea of Azov) under Russian orbit while the Center and West of present-day Ukraine will sail in the wake of the EU.


The Crimean crisis would have meant the return of the Brezhnev Doctrine (also called the doctrine of limited sovereignty), which established that “Russia has the right to intervene even militarily in the internal affairs of the countries in its area of influence”, establishing a network of Orbital rings that will gravitate over the Russian aegis, ruled by autocrats who only blindly obey the dictates of their master Putin and among which the Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov and the Belarusian leader, Lukashenko, would stand out. Thus, skillfully combining aid to oppressed Russian ethnic minorities (Crimea, Ossetia, Akkhazia), energy blackmail (Ukraine and Moldova), the dissuasive nuclear threat, surgical military intervention (Chechnya and Kazakhstan), the destabilization of neighboring governments “non gratos ”(Georgia) and the drowning of the internal political opposition will try to place under its orbit the majority of the countries separated from the extinct USSR and create the New Greater Russia on the horizon of 2025, the result of the atavism of Peter the Great.

With regard to Ukraine, Putin tries to ensure that Ukraine does not enter NATO and that the Ukrainian dispute is outlined with the division of Ukraine into two almost symmetrical halves and separated by the Donbass line of contact, leaving the South and East of the country (including Crimea and the Sea of Azov) under Russian orbit while the Center and West of present-day Ukraine will sail in the wake of the EU. To achieve this, Putin will take the opportunity to reissue the 2006 Russo-Ukrainian Gas War with the unequivocal objective of subduing the Ukrainian pro-European sector by means of a daring movement of his towers in the geopolitical chess game that would be taking place in Ukraine economic suffocation and energy starvation, while using the weapon of energy blackmail to the EU to break the community unity, in the certainty that both Germany and France will not hesitate to sacrifice Ukraine in order to ensure their energy supply.


Thus, the coalition of Russian-German interests devised the Nord Stream project that connects Russia with Germany through the Baltic Sea, with a maximum transport capacity of 55,000 million cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year and with a validity of 50 years , a vital route for Germany and the Nordic countries, which is why it was declared of “European interest” by the European Parliament and crucial for the Russian energy geostrategy and to achieve it, Putin will achieve the dual geostrategic objective of ensuring an uninterrupted flow of gas to Europe by two alternative routes, turning Poland and Ukraine into energy islands and the so-called Donbass line in the new Berlin Wall of the Cold War 2.0.

The views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect our Editorial Policy


Author

Germán Gorraiz López is an economic and geopolitical analyst. He regularly collaborates in several Spanish and Latin American digital and printed publications.


Republishing is allowed with a copyright credit to © The Radical Outlook

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The Radical Outlook

The Radical Outlook is an online news web Portal designed for in-depth news analysis from the Eurasian region and beyond. It is Founded by a geopolitical analyst Shahzada Rahim.
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