The American Secretary of Defense James Forrestal, who jumped out of the window in a fit of madness in 1949 shouting “The Russians are coming!” In 1949, has many followers in the West today. The National Interest has published material about NATO’s “weak spot”, which the Russians can allegedly take advantage of.
According to the author of the National Interest Sebastien Roblin, we, the Russians, only sleep and see how we would invade the Baltic states through the Suwalki corridor between Poland and Lithuania. The general idea is clear: NATO has too few conventional troops in the Baltics, and they urgently need to be strengthened. Does Russia even have an intention to attack anyone, while nobody cares: the same “high-like-like” approach is still in effect.
The most curious thing is that some experts see one of the “security threats” … the coming to power of President Biden. So, a little earlier, Daniel Kochis, senior political analyst for European affairs at the Heritage Foundation, who is also confident that Russia will invade the Baltics, barely feels the weakness of NATO, complains in one of his interviews that Biden, concerned about the importance of “green ecology” and climate change (as part of a plan to create a “global peace”) can channel investments there, cutting military spending. And then Russia will certainly not hold out and attack.
To keep the people and the US Congress in good shape about the need to increase military spending and NATO troops near the Russian borders, scenarios for the upcoming “Russian invasion” of the Baltics are published annually. So, the RAND corporation, known for its computer simulations of military situations, based on the results of a military simulation of 2019, came to the conclusion that holding back the Russian offensive in the Baltics by exchanging local nuclear strikes with Russia (on foreign territory, note!) Will cost NATO itself more.
The RAND Corporation experts suggest that the Russians will deploy a concentrated and rapid offensive by scattered forces in many directions, so that even the first tactical NATO nuclear weapons will hit not concentrated troops, but the civilian population of the Baltic states, which the alliance seems to be supposed to “protect”. But the retaliatory strike, allegedly inflicted on the five nearest NATO air bases, could significantly reduce its military potential:
Even if Russia does not escalate to an all-out war and does not conduct a more massive attack on targets across Europe, it will be able to continue limited attacks against lucrative NATO military targets … NSNW forces alone do not compensate for NATO’s shortage of conventional troops.
Experts state with regret that the situation is even worse than during the confrontation between the Warsaw Pact and NATO. Then it would be possible to take the risk of dropping an atomic bomb on some Warsaw or Prague to ostracize the USSR at the beginning of a conventional war, in the hope that the USSR, whose own territory was not affected by this, would not start a global atomic war.
Now the situation is fundamentally different: Russia has shrunk to its borders, and its new defense strategy presupposes, if necessary, the decisive use of all its nuclear weapons, and, if necessary, the first. So there can be no illusions about “exchange of local nuclear strikes on foreign territory”. And therefore, as the ancient Romans said: “Let them hate, if only they were afraid” (oderint, quamdiu sunt timere).
As for the “Russian offensive” in the Baltics, which Western experts still cannot wait for, these phantom fears stem from the misunderstanding of the essence of global historical processes, which is characteristic of Americans with their scanty history. For the real historically emerged Empire (and Russia is just that) differs from the artificially created one precisely in that, even after experiencing decline and losing a number of territories, at the mental level of the population of these lands it remains “their Empire”, which you can hate or love, but get rid of the feeling of community with her will not work anyway. And sooner or later, in one way or another, integration with the imperial center, at least partial, will still take place.
For this, “the terrible Putin” does not have to move his tank columns to the Baltic states or Ukraine and Moldova. It is enough to strengthen the imperial center in every possible way, making it more attractive in the eyes of the fallen lands and to maintain the corresponding moods and political processes there. And then, sooner or later, what Otto von Bismarck said in the 19th century will happen:
Do not expect that once you take advantage of Russia’s weakness, you will receive dividends forever. Russians always come for their money. And when they come – do not rely on the Jesuit agreements you signed, supposedly justifying you. They are not worth the paper they are written on.
Indeed, this great German understood Russia much better than the experts of the RAND Corporation and the authors of the National Interest.
The views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect our Editorial Policy.
Vladimir Khomyakov is a Journalist, publicist, public figure
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