If There is No War Tomorrow!

If There is No War Tomorrow!

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The  NATO military exercises in the Black Sea and the entry of the US Sixth Fleet warships into the port of Batumi are intended to demonstrate that the US is well aware of the urgency of the moment and is ready to support Ukraine in a possible conflict with Russia. The Black Sea basin – Washington makes it clear – will be used in this case to attack Russia – or at least to contain it. 

The Geopolitics of Poles Image © The Radical Outlook

By Alexander Dugin

© The Radical Outlook

Recently, the escalation of US-Russian relations has been clearly visible. This is the second episode since the spring of 2021 when many expected a go-ahead to Kyiv from the neocons-backed globalist Biden for an offensive in Donbas. But then everything was limited to Zelensky’s ridiculous arrival from the NATO zone and convincing maneuvers of the Russian Armed Forces on Russian territory. This turned out to be enough. 

Then Washington made an attempt to disrupt the launch of Nord Stream-2 but again failed since the European partners simply rejected this policy.

Then Biden focused on the withdrawal of American forces and their accomplices from Afghanistan and the creation of the Anglo-Saxon coalition (AUKUS) against China, as well as the quadrilateral QUAD bloc, where the United States included Japan and India. Again, everyone is against China.

The movement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began in the Donbas… The Minsk agreements were essentially completely crossed out by Kyiv. Punishers began to seize settlements located on the territory of the DPR. Here are indicative of the speeches of some Ukrainian politicians who call on their American partners to intervene in the situation, support the restoration of Kyiv’s control over Donbas and, if necessary, join in a direct military confrontation with Russia. 

With the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and proceeding to the withdrawal of troops from Syria (so far in Iraq), Biden gave a signal of his patheticism, but AUKUS and QUAD are rather a tribute to the neocons and hawks. However, the withdrawal of troops is a fact, and the coalitions created are so far only a simple opportunity, a threat, a swing, not a blow.

Apparently, this caused serious discontent among the neocons, and they demanded that the president, who was sinking deeper into old man’s dementia, take decisive steps.

This was reflected in the escalation of relations – this time not with China, but with Russia, which we are witnessing today. The tension has synchronously increased along the entire perimeter around Russia. Three zones of growing conflict are clearly visible here.

The  NATO military exercises in the Black Sea and the entry of the US Sixth Fleet warships into the port of Batumi are intended to demonstrate that the US is well aware of the urgency of the moment and is ready to support Ukraine in a possible conflict with Russia. The Black Sea basin – Washington makes it clear – will be used in this case to attack Russia – or at least to contain it. 

Belarus and the crisis with migrants on the Polish border: Here, the logic of Lukashenka’s behavior is quite rational, who calmly accepts in his country migrants rushing to the European Union, not paying attention to Poland, which, in turn, after the elections in Minsk and mass liberal protests, refused to build any constructive with Lukashenka. relationship. The tension on the border and the gathering of Polish troops there creates a hotbed of tension between the allied Russia Belarus and the United States, the EU, and NATO. But Lukashenka has nothing to do with it, he just symmetrically responds to NATO rudeness and the attempt of the regime change operation undertaken by the globalists.

Parallel to this, the movement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began in the Donbas… The Minsk agreements were essentially completely crossed out by Kyiv. Punishers began to seize settlements located on the territory of the DPR. Here are indicative of the speeches of some Ukrainian politicians who call on their American partners to intervene in the situation, support the restoration of Kyiv’s control over Donbas and, if necessary, join in a direct military confrontation with Russia. This confrontation will inevitably arise, since today it is obvious to everyone that if Kyiv starts a full-fledged military operation, Moscow will not leave its citizens from the DPR and LPR, who have long received Russian passports in large numbers, to their fate. Once again, the situation is escalating, and Washington makes it clear that this time it is determined and ready to support Kyiv.

The biggest argument why war is unlikely to happen is that  Biden has no mandate to do so. His rating is falling, everyone is unhappy with him – not only Trump supporters and Republicans but also his own party members and voters. Biden can’t do anything. Everything falls out of his hands, he forgets the words, greets the ghost, falls asleep wherever he can. 

And finally, the  NATO military exercises in the Black Sea and the entry of the US Sixth Fleet warships into the port of Batumi are intended to demonstrate that the US is well aware of the urgency of the moment and is ready to support Ukraine in a possible conflict with Russia. The Black Sea basin – Washington makes it clear – will be used in this case to attack Russia – or at least to contain it. 

To support the overall strategy of the United States, former President Mikheil Saakashvili was recently illegally brought to Georgia, who professionally deals with geopolitical and political provocations in the interests of globalists – primarily George Soros and his networks. The neutral ruling power in Georgia Georgian Dream is not ready to join a new adventure – this required Saakashvili, whom the authorities safely arrested. But the mine has been laid.

So, for the second time during Biden’s presidency, relations between Russia and the United States have reached a  critical point.  This can explain the direct dialogue between Russian President Vladimir Putin and CIA Director William Burns, who recently arrived in Moscow on purpose. Such an asymmetric dialogue is conducted only in extreme conditions. 

In other words,  we are on the verge of a war, and it can begin in one of three zones of growing escalation – 

  • On the Belarusian-Polish border, 
  • In Donbass or 
  • In the Black Sea. 

Or maybe in three regions at the same time.

It is quite easy to take the first shot in such a situation: the legal status of the Russian Crimea or the independent Donbas, as well as the recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, are diametrically opposed in the eyes of Russia and the West. What Moscow would perceive as an act of direct aggression (and these are Putin’s “red lines”), for the United States and its allies and satellites may well look like a “legitimate operation to restore control over national territories” or an action to “enforce peace dictator ”(in the case of Lukashenka and the shadowy Belarusian opposition in the person of Tikhanovskaya). 

War is more likely than ever.

However, there are a number of arguments that give grounds for hope that this time too, everything will return to normal and the status quo will be restored.

The biggest argument why war is unlikely to happen is that  Biden has no mandate to do so. His rating is falling, everyone is unhappy with him – not only Trump supporters and Republicans but also his own party members and voters. Biden can’t do anything. Everything falls out of his hands, he forgets the words, greets the ghost, falls asleep wherever he can. To start a war against the nuclear and militarily and psychologically quite vigorous Russia of Putin – albeit partly by someone else’s hands – requires iron legitimacy. This must be justified, as it puts all of humanity on the brink of destruction. Nuclear weapons are nuclear weapons. And here the parity is still unconditional. 

No one in the world doubts Putin’s determination to stand up for the freedom and independence of Russia to the end. And just imagine: in such a situation, the grandfather, almost completely out of his mind, orders: “forward, attack! Follow us …” … and what is behind us? Soros, LGBT +, gay parades, replacement of humanity with Artificial Intelligence, a system of global network censorship and tracking, Zuckerberg out of his mind, believing that he is already living in a science fiction film … And for this, you have to fight with Putin?

There is one very interesting difference:  Putin has a mandate to fight defensively. Patriotic sentiments in Russian society are already extremely high, and after the first shot (God forbid he should sound), they will rise to the skies. And Putin has full legitimacy in domestic politics. 

On the other hand, this is not just the opinion of Biden’s opponent, an ordinary American, but also of most of his supporters. Except for maybe neocons, but they are not complete maniacs and suicides. They study geopolitics and (hopefully) are well aware of the realities of a true balance of power.

This means that this perimeter escalation is most likely nothing more than bluff number 2.

If so, then the limit on intimidation of Russia, after the situation returns to normal, will be exhausted. Swinging twice and never hitting means only one thing:  the aggressor is not at all capable of hitting. That is, it is not an aggressor, but a scarecrow.

There seems to be no result, everything is as it was, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will return to their barracks, migrants will make their way through the forests to Germany, and US warships will go to their usual places of deployment in the Mediterranean Sea, but everything is not at all the same. From now on, you can simply wipe your feet about Biden like a floor mat. He is irresponsible, this pathetic old moron. He may even die of shame. Kamala Harris, for whom the globalists had so many hopes, may also disappear since she turned out to be just a fool and everyone turned away from her.

But still, when the situation escalates so sharply, one cannot be completely sure that nothing will happen. Therefore, the likelihood of war must be taken seriously. However, the Russian leadership – Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov – is demonstrating this. Hence our symmetrical exercises, the sharpness of the reaction to the provocations of the US Armed Forces near our borders, and the aggressive gestures of Kyiv. Russia is ready for war. It is clear that everything will be done to avoid it, but if those same red lines are crossed, Russia will accept the situation with courage and dignity. 

And here there is one very interesting difference:  Putin has a mandate to fight defensively. Patriotic sentiments in Russian society are already extremely high, and after the first shot (God forbid he should sound), they will rise to the skies. And Putin has full legitimacy in domestic politics. And we hope that the technological potential of the Russian army will be enough (although no one knows how in reality everything is in the field of armaments and new military technologies, and if it does, then it is a state secret, therefore, to guess whether we are ready for a full-fledged war or not, – meaningless – it seems that they are ready).

To summarize, Russia has a better starting position in this escalation than the United States. Moreover, in the event of a direct conflict, Moscow has a chance to improve its geopolitical position qualitatively and in one stroke – and in all three directions.

In a critical situation 

  • Unification with Belarus will happen rapidly,
  • Novorossia (from Odessa to Kharkov) will finally be liberated, and then there will be two Ukraine, one of which will pay for everything – from Maidan to punitive raids, 
  • In Georgia, God forbid, a national neutral regime will be strengthened, with which it will be possible to positively develop relations.

Yes, price matters. But all great things are paid for in blood.

And what does the USA get? Russians cannot be killed directly. Putin’s position is absolutely firm. No one in their right mind can count on the direct occupation of Russia – and even more so on the basis of an incapacitated proxy in the form of Ukraine.

That is, in one word:  there will be no war. It won’t happen again. For Moscow, this, of course, is already a victory. But not like a real victory … 


Author

Alexander Dugin is a Prominent Russian Philosopher and Geopolitician.


Republishing is allowed with the copyright credit to © The Radical Outlook

About Post Author

The Radical Outlook

The Radical Outlook is an online news web Portal designed for in-depth news analysis from the Eurasian region and beyond. It is Founded by a geopolitical analyst Shahzada Rahim.
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