Afghanistan Imbroglio: implications for Bajaur and FATA region

Afghanistan Imbroglio: implications for Bajaur and FATA region

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The TPP and other militant-terrorist groups of Pakistan will take advantage of the opportunity and will start terrorist attacks in the already week areas. Like the areas of South Waziristan, Mohmand and Bajaur.

The Rise of ISIS-K and Implication for the South Asian Security Image © The Radical Outlook

By Ijaz Ahmad

© Published by RO

Refusal of Taliban for handing over Osama bin Laden to the U.S in 9/11, the United States invaded Afghanistan. The Taliban lost its power in Afghanistan and was just limited to the southern part of Afghanistan. Some illegally relocate cross the border to Pakistan, so they have started terrorist attacks and insurgency against western-back force and the local indigenous of Afghanistan. But in the eighteenth year of the war, the Afghan government faces significant challenges in holding territory and defending population centers. At the same time, the Taliban captured districts and committed suicides attacks in major cities.

With the withdrawal of US forces, where on 2nd of July the US forces have left the Bagram fort at the north of Kabul without any prior notification to their Afghan allies, the Fort has been looted by the locals and the Taliban. It predicted that the Taliban being blessed with modern technologies and equipment.

During the time of US, tropes were present in Afghanistan; the US government estimated as of 2019, only 55% of the area is in control of the Afghanistan government, 33 % is contested, while the remaining 12% is under the power of the Taliban, which is increasing day by day.

After the long protracted war in Afghanistan, the US has felt that the war for peace is no option, as it has been a long stance of Pakistan. Almost from one year struggle of US government and the Taliban by the help of Pakistan government has reached to a singed peace agreement on Feb 29, 2020, with the plan to give a proper schedule to the US to withdraw her troops, which is the core aim of the Taliban.

With the withdrawal of US forces, where on 2nd of July the US forces have left the Bagram fort at the north of Kabul without any prior notification to their Afghan allies, the Fort has been looted by the locals and the Taliban. It predicted that the Taliban being blessed with modern technologies and equipment.

The recent statement by Ex-TTP deputy leader Faqir Muhammad who is released by the Taliban after seven years, according to him that we will try to have an Islamic System in Pakistan, stood a lot of concerns for the security of Pakistan. So, if the TTP successes for what they claim, Afghanistan will be a haven for TPP, where checks and balances are not in good condition already.

The Taliban are attacking and snatching districts continuously; it is estimated that the Taliban are rolling over a third of the 421 districts, which are increasing day by day. Similarly, the recent statement by the Biden administration that the Taliban can take control over Kabul within 90 days if the situation goes like. So these developments indicated that they bring Afghanistan closer to a full-fledged Civil War, which is reduced for a variable time.

It is due and also made clear by the government of Pakistan that instability in Afghanistan will stand cause for all the region and specifically for Pakistan’s tribal areas, where the security situation is already not in good condition.

The TPP and other militant-terrorist groups of Pakistan will take advantage of the opportunity and will start terrorist attacks in the already week areas. Like the areas of South Waziristan, Mohmand, and Bajaur.

Afghans in Pakistan are regarded accountable, at least partly, for the fast and often chaotic urbanization of provincial capitals and for competing for employment with the local poor by accepting lower salaries. Authorities accuse them of aiding growing criminal activity, such as smuggling stolen items, narcotics, and weapons. There is evidence of growing hostility in local populations due to the refugees’ continued presence in Pakistan.

The recent statement by Ex-TTP deputy leader Faqir Muhammad who is released by the Taliban after seven years, according him that we will try to have an Islamic System in Pakistan, stood a lot of concerns for the security of Pakistan. So, if the TTP successes for what they claim, Afghanistan will be a haven for TPP, where checks and balances are not in good condition already.

Despite the above, According to The International Organization of Migration (IOM), the number of documented Afghan refugees in Pakistan, including undocumented refugees, makes it around 2.8 million. This makes Pakistan the second-largest refugee population in the world. Pakistan will find itself trapped with another influx of refugees while recovering its economy amidst a global pandemic. Over the years, many Pakistanis have grown apprehensive of the Afghan presence in the country.

With the border fencing in place, the refugee influx from Afghanistan is most likely to be curtailed. A viable possibility for the Pakistani leadership could be to opt for a pragmatic policy to prevent a large influx. According to Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid, Pakistan’s borders would not be opened for refugees. Instead, the government will adopt the so-called “Iranian model,” in which refugees would be kept in border camps.

They believe that it exacerbates existing severe socio-economic problems, security concerns, and long-term political instability. Afghans in Pakistan are regarded accountable, at least partly, for the fast and often chaotic urbanization of provincial capitals and for competing for employment with the local poor by accepting lower salaries. Authorities accuse them of aiding growing criminal activity, such as smuggling stolen items, narcotics, and weapons. There is evidence of growing hostility in local populations due to the refugees’ continued presence in Pakistan. In recent years, local Pakistani leaders have made sporadic pronouncements regarding the necessity to repatriate Afghan refugees.

Before the announcement of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the leadership in Pakistan was discussing the return of Afghans. Unsurprisingly, the officials are further clearing their stance and registering their concerns following the Afghan refugee crisis.

It is most necessary for Pakistan to have a strong look at the tribal area and mainstream the people of the region to avoid any threat pursuing from the TTP side; poverty and hopelessness can bring people to join TTP.

In a recent briefing to the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs, National Security Adviser Moeed Yusuf warned of an upcoming onslaught by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, who might enter Pakistan dressed as refugees. These apprehensions of Pakistan vis-à-vis militants seeking entry as refugees into Pakistan are not overstated, and handling such large numbers requires a structured security check.

With the border fencing in place, the refugee influx from Afghanistan is most likely to be curtailed. A viable possibility for the Pakistani leadership could be to opt for a pragmatic policy to prevent a large influx. According to Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid, Pakistan’s borders would not be opened for refugees. Instead, the government will adopt the so-called “Iranian model,” in which refugees would be kept in border camps.

It is most necessary for Pakistan to have a strong look at the tribal area and mainstream the people of the region to avoid any threat pursuing from the TTP side; poverty and hopelessness can bring people to join TTP. Similarly, Pakistan should take any new coming government of Afghanistan in confidence to the soil of Afghanistan should not be used against Pakistan, and to have intelligence sharing with Pakistan regarding TTP and other anti-militant groups.

The views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect our Editorial Policy


Author

Mr. Ijaz Ahmed is a writer Pursuing Mphil in International Relations from NUML University Islamabad, He can be reached at eng.ijaz658@gmail.com


Republishing is allowed with a copyright credit to © The Radical Outlook

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The Radical Outlook

The Radical Outlook is an online news web Portal designed for in-depth news analysis from the Eurasian region and beyond. It is Founded by a geopolitical analyst Shahzada Rahim.
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