West is trying to drag Russia into Afghan Quagmire: We Know who Benefits

West is trying to drag Russia into Afghan Quagmire: We Know who Benefits

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Not all of Afghanistan happily and resignedly submitted to the Taliban *, whose overwhelming success was caused not so much by their strength as by the general hatred of the Ashraf Ghani regime installed in Afghanistan by the Americans. The power of the Islamist Pashtuns, whose image is much more attractive today than it was 20 years ago, was still not recognized by one hard-to-reach Afghan province – Panjshir. A hotbed of resistance is being formed there, a new “Northern Alliance”, potentially capable of uniting all those dissatisfied with the Taliban *, stirring up tribal strife and plunging Afghanistan into the abyss of a new war, into which Russia can also be drawn, if, of course, it allows “the tail to wag the dog.”

American Failure in Afghanistan is shameful Image © The Radical Outlook

By Sergey Latyshev

Alas, when one war in Afghanistan ends, another is already knocking on the door. Therefore, one should not be too surprised that in the north of Afghanistan, where Tajiks and Uzbeks compactly live, whose fate is not indifferent in Dushanbe and Tashkent, a new edition of the Northern Alliance, which fought against the Taliban * in the past years, is being formed from the remnants of government troops and local forces. There is the former first vice-president of the country, Amrullah Saleh, who has not found support in Kabul, an ethnic Tajik and a mortal enemy of the Taliban *, a figure who has survived dozens of assassination attempts who cannot count on the leniency of the new government. After the shameful flight of Ghani, he declared himself acting president of Afghanistan in accordance with the constitution of the republic (with this everything is legitimate! ) and called on all citizens of the country to join the resistance. Even before the fall of Kabul, Saleh gave the order to transfer a significant amount of weapons and ammunition to Panjshir. He has about 10,000 armed men on hand.

Some analysts are already drawing conclusions about that their recognition by Moscow as the new government is not far off. Despite the recognition by the Supreme Court of Russia of the Taliban as a terrorist organization and its prohibition on the territory of the country on February 14, 2003, several high-ranking Taliban delegations have visited Moscow in recent years and met with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

A similar appeal was made by Ahmad Massoud Jr., the son of the legendary leader of the Mujahideen in the 1980s and 1990s, the brave field commander and defense minister, Ahmad Shah Massoud, who was killed by Arab suicide bombers. He also declared Panjshir a center of resistance to the Taliban *: “We call on all free Afghans, all those who reject slavery, to join our Bastion of Panjshir, the last free region in our tortured land.” He turned to the United States, European and Arab countries for help and support.

And these are not just words: Saleh’s detachments were able to recapture the Charikar region from the Taliban * in the Panjshir province of Parwan, north of Kabul. A strategic highway connecting Kabul with Mazar-i-Sharif, the administrative center of Balkh province, passes through Charikar and the Salang tunnel. The Taliban * have pulled their forces into the area, but so far are reportedly on the defensive, while working with elders in an attempt to end the peace in the Panjshir standoff.

A new war in Afghanistan, where almost 40 million people already live, threatens not only neighboring countries but the whole world with an acute migration crisis. Millions of people will flock to the former Soviet Central Asian republics and from there to Russia. It is clear that the United States will in every possible way incite this conflict, corrupt under this case under the pretext of “accommodating refugees” the already corrupt leadership of the Central Asian states, and at the same time provoke “color revolutions” in them, primarily to weaken Russia, depriving us of scarce resources. and then, possibly, to change the regime.

Saleh and Masud Jr., outwardly similar, but lacking the charisma of their father, the “Panjshir lion”, have another ally – the leader of the National Islamic Movement, Marshal Abdul-Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek, whose troops, according to some sources, also number about 10 thousands of people. This commander, however, does not differ in courage, although his soldiers fought well. This trinity will, apparently, become the backbone of resistance to the Taliban, against which peaceful protests have already taken place (several people were killed) in Kandahar and Nangarhar, in the Pashtun regions, by the way.

It is curious that Dostum traditionally relied on the help of Turkey and Uzbekistan, Saleh was guided by India, which had invested heavily in Afghanistan, and Massoud Jr. interacted with the French and maintained contacts with the Russians.

Doesn’t Russia need Panjshir revolt?

For Russia, the emergence of a front of resistance to the Taliban * in Panjshir can be harmful for several good reasons.

First of all, Moscow is interested in the stability of Afghanistan. And now only the Taliban can really provide it, with whom Russia can negotiate, for example, on the basis of joint rejection of ISIS. The fact is that these Islamist “internationalist” terrorists, who are being assisted behind the scenes by the United States, are much more dangerous than the Taliban, who are primarily conservative Pashtun nationalists. The latter have repeatedly assured Russia that they will not “export” Islamism. As a result, the Taliban, who declared “jihad” to Russia in 1999, and in 2001 proposed to jointly fight the United States, gradually became for Moscow on the basis of legitimate joint interests “sane people” (Lavrov) and “normal men” (Kabulov). Some analysts are already drawing conclusions about that their recognition by Moscow as the new government is not far off. Despite the recognition by the Supreme Court of Russia of the Taliban as a terrorist organization and its prohibition on the territory of the country on February 14, 2003, several high-ranking Taliban delegations have visited Moscow in recent years and met with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

A real alternative to Taliban rule is the disintegration of Afghanistan into ethnic enclaves, fraught with great massacres and a surge of instability throughout the region.

It is clear that Russia not only should not help the Northern Alliance in any way, defending the ambitions of its leaders, but should also try to prevent Tajikistan and its ex-Soviet neighbors from interfering in this conflict. Russia’s joint military exercises with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan this summer and the supply of modern weapons to Dushanbe are precautions, not encouragements to interfere in the internal affairs of a neighboring country.

Second, the weakness of the new Northern Alliance poses a serious problem for Russia. Why? Everything is very simple. Afghan Tajiks and Uzbeks will start a war with the Pashtuns, lose it, run to the north, and start asking to intervene – to provide weapons, to send volunteers and troops – their fellow tribesmen from the other side of the Pyanj and the Amu Darya. And those, in turn, especially, apparently, with sympathy for the Fronde in Panjshir Tajikistan as a member of the CSTO, will begin to ask Russia to intervene and protect against the vengeful Taliban *. So the “normal men” from Afghanistan will again turn out to be the enemies of the Russians, although neither one nor the other needs this at all. This will just be the classic case when the tail wags the dog.

Thirdly, a new war in Afghanistan, where almost 40 million people already live, threatens not only neighboring countries but the whole world with an acute migration crisis. Millions of people will flock to the former Soviet Central Asian republics and from there to Russia. It is clear that the United States will in every possible way incite this conflict, corrupt under this case under the pretext of “accommodating refugees” the already corrupt leadership of the Central Asian states and at the same time provoke “color revolutions” in them, primarily to weaken Russia, depriving us of scarce resources. and then, possibly, to change the regime.

Alas, Russia will have to deal with the mess that has reigned in the Central Asian expanses, which ISIS ** and regional drug lords will definitely take advantage of. Leaving Afghanistan, the United States wanted exactly that.

So what?

It is clear that Russia not only should not help the Northern Alliance in any way, defending the ambitions of its leaders but should also try to prevent Tajikistan and its ex-Soviet neighbors from interfering in this conflict. Russia’s joint military exercises with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan this summer and the supply of modern weapons to Dushanbe are precautions, not encouragements to interfere in the internal affairs of a neighboring country.

Uzbekistan, like Turkmenistan, also has tribesmen in Afghanistan. If inter-tribal war breaks out there, these countries will also run to Russia with requests for salvation. All our allies in Central Asia have a common hatred of the Taliban *, who announced that they would fight hard not only against drugs, but also against theft and corruption, and impose social justice, due to the absence of which millions from Central Asia are already fleeing to Russia. objectively interested in normal relations with Afghanistan. That, too, of course, will not gain anything from a new war. The bloodshed will only harden the internal and external policies of the Taliban. * That is why Russia is seeking the “inclusiveness” of the new Afghan government, in which not only Pashtuns should be represented, making this one of the conditions for the recognition of the Taliban *.

The views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect our Editorial Policy


Author

Sergey Latyshev is an International journalist, candidate of historical sciences


Republishing is allowed with a copyright credit to © The Radical Outlook

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The Radical Outlook

The Radical Outlook is an online news web Portal designed for in-depth news analysis from the Eurasian region and beyond. It is Founded by a geopolitical analyst Shahzada Rahim.
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